← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 68% | 70% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +5% |
| Portogruaro win | 11% | 7% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Portogruaro |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 340.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1591.72 | 1417.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.38 | -20.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 71.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.05 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |