← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 53% | 50% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 20% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 180.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1450.11 | 1374.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.25 | -12.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 46.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.95 |
| state index | -0.28 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |