← Serie B 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 48% | 33% | 1.80 | fair |
| Atalanta BC win | 31% | 46% | 2.75 | value: +28% ⚠ |
| Crotone win | 21% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2212.00 | 325.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1459.03 | 1606.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.31 | 5.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 46.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.94 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |