← Serie B 2010-11 · Thu, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 41% | 46% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 35% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| Vicenza win | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Padova | Vicenza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1472.91 | 1462.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.54 | -11.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 46.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.36 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |