← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portogruaro win | 50% | 41% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.25 | value: +10% |
| Triestina win | 21% | 26% | 4.33 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portogruaro | Triestina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1426.56 | 1386.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.79 | -0.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 37.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| state index | -0.34 | -1.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |