← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 53% | 65% | 1.70 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 30% | 24% | 3.10 | fair |
| Piacenza win | 16% | 11% | 5.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Novara | Piacenza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1541.71 | 1430.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.64 | -43.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 59.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.16 | -1.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |