← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 47% | 28% | 1.90 | fair |
| Siena win | 37% | 52% | 2.60 | value: +36% ⚠ |
| Grosseto win | 16% | 20% | 5.50 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grosseto | Siena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1458.52 | 1612.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.91 | 26.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 44.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.97 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.98 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |