← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio win | 43% | 35% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| Padova win | 27% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1371.08 | 1474.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.60 | 20.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 33.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.29 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |