← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 68% | 60% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.20 | value: +16% |
| Empoli win | 10% | 12% | 9.50 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 319.00 | 1110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1622.00 | 1465.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.03 | 2.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 70.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |