← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varese win | 53% | 62% | 1.73 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.00 | fair |
| Grosseto win | 16% | 12% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Varese | Grosseto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1553.07 | 1467.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.50 | -0.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 55.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |