← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggina win | 55% | 40% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Cittadella win | 15% | 27% | 6.50 | value: +76% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reggina | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 647.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1484.82 | 1476.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.94 | 3.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 49.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.09 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |