← Serie B 2010-11 · Mon, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena win | 41% | 54% | 2.25 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 36% | 28% | 2.63 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 23% | 18% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Siena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1389.08 | 1599.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.39 | 15.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 33.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.91 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |