← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 51% | 67% | 1.80 | value: +21% ⚠ |
| Draw | 32% | 23% | 2.90 | fair |
| Ascoli win | 17% | 10% | 5.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Novara | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1536.11 | 1453.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.95 | 4.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 55.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.28 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |