← Serie B 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 54% | 30% | 1.65 | fair |
| Empoli win | 32% | 48% | 2.90 | value: +38% ⚠ |
| Padova win | 13% | 23% | 7.00 | value: +60% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1096.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1466.55 | 1460.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.99 | -3.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 43.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |