← Serie B 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 37% | 50% | 2.50 | value: +26% |
| Albinoleffe win | 32% | 22% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Albinoleffe | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1421.99 | 1554.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.89 | -20.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 36.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.72 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |