⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

US Sassuolo Calcio 2–2 Parma Calcio 1913

← Serie B 2008-09 Β· Sat, May 30, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Sassuolo Calcio win40%2.30
Draw32%3.00
Parma Calcio 1913 win29%3.30

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricUS Sassuolo CalcioParma Calcio 1913
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days699.00271.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1467.601617.60
elo momentum (last 5)-28.981.08
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
league points59.0075.00
league rank7.002.00
matches since blank6.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.441.83
state index-0.620.69
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80