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Empoli 2–1 Treviso

← Serie B 2008-09 Β· Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Empoli win60%1.53
Draw27%3.50
Treviso win13%7.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricEmpoliTreviso
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days382.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1476.751382.51
elo momentum (last 5)-12.05-20.25
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
league points51.0032.00
league rank8.0022.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
rest days15.0014.00
season ppg1.500.94
state index-0.31-0.96
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60