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US Sassuolo Calcio 1–1 Avellino

← Serie B 2008-09 Β· Tue, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Sassuolo Calcio win58%1.62
Draw27%3.40
Avellino win15%6.25

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricUS Sassuolo CalcioAvellino
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days653.002114.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
elo1510.641376.69
elo momentum (last 5)-32.6920.51
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
league points51.0033.00
league rank8.0020.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
rest days10.0010.00
season ppg1.551.00
state index-0.51-0.45
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.00