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Pescara 2–3 Crotone

← Serie B 2006-07 Β· Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Crotone win37%2.50
Pescara win32%2.90
Draw31%2.90

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPescaraCrotone
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days7248.00764.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
elo1334.111369.38
elo momentum (last 5)-24.74-33.92
form points (last 5)1.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
league points25.0029.00
league rank22.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win6.008.00
rest days4.004.00
season ppg0.690.81
state index-1.54-1.66
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.00