⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Venezia FC 2–4 Perugia

← Serie B 2004-05 Β· Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia win57%1.57
Draw25%3.50
Venezia FC win18%5.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCPerugia
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1764.00303.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
elo1337.801504.86
elo momentum (last 5)-12.30-12.97
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.30
league points29.0053.00
league rank21.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win3.003.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg0.831.51
state index-1.14-0.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40