⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Salernitana 1–0 Como 1907

← Serie B 2003-04 Β· Sat, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Salernitana win51%1.75
Draw31%3.00
Como 1907 win18%5.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSalernitanaComo 1907
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days291.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
elo1351.841368.28
elo momentum (last 5)-17.48-42.70
form points (last 5)3.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.421.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
league points41.0032.00
league rank19.0023.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win12.008.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.110.86
state index-1.72-1.74
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.40