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Sampdoria 0–0 Siena

← Serie B 2002-03 Β· Mon, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sampdoria win48%1.83
Draw35%2.50
Siena win16%5.50

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time scoreβ€”

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSampdoriaSiena
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days331.00β€”
congestion 21d3.002.00
elo1578.681549.20
elo momentum (last 5)20.19-3.33
form points (last 5)11.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.05
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
league points57.0053.00
league rank1.003.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
rest days9.009.00
season ppg1.841.71
state index0.890.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40