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Boavista 3–1 Vitória SC

← Primeira Liga 2002-03 · Mon, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Boavista win43%2.10
Vitória SC win29%3.20
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBoavistaVitória SC
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
elo1581.631537.78
elo momentum (last 5)-22.90-0.86
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
league points32.0046.00
league rank12.004.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
rest days10.007.00
season ppg1.141.64
state index0.180.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00