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FC Porto 2–0 Leiria

← Primeira Liga 2002-03 Β· Sun, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Porto win72%1.25
Draw18%5.00
Leiria win9%11.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC PortoLeiria
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days439.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1783.271570.98
elo momentum (last 5)8.23-28.52
form points (last 5)12.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.700.40
league points63.0034.00
league rank1.006.00
matches since blank20.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.005.00
rest days12.0015.00
season ppg2.631.42
state index2.03-0.11
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.60