Sporting Clube de Braga 4–0 Campomaiorense

← Primeira Liga 2000-01 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Sporting Clube de Braga win	61%	1.45
Draw	26%	3.40
Campomaiorense win	14%	6.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

Half-time score

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Sporting Clube de Braga	Campomaiorense
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.15	0.10
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	2485.00	—
comeback rate (last 20)	0.05	0.00
congestion 21d	3.00	3.00
elo	1561.76	1432.12
elo momentum (last 5)	0.09	27.32
form points (last 5)	8.00	8.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	0.40	0.40
goals against avg (last 5)	1.60	1.40
goals for avg (last 5)	2.00	1.80
goals volatility (last 10)	1.03	1.20
h2 goals (last 10)	0.90	0.60
ht lead rate (last 20)	0.45	0.30
league points	51.00	26.00
league rank	4.00	16.00
matches since blank	10.00	6.00
matches since clean sheet	3.00	8.00
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	6.00	6.00
season ppg	1.82	0.93
state index	0.59	-0.37
venue ppg (last 5)	2.20	0.40