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ADO Den Haag 1–3 Waalwijk

← Eredivisie 2003-04 Β· Sat, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
ADO Den Haag win42%2.10
Waalwijk win29%3.10
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricADO Den HaagWaalwijk
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days5762.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1444.891504.47
elo momentum (last 5)-29.21-20.67
form points (last 5)2.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
league points25.0032.00
league rank15.0012.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win5.005.00
rest days6.007.00
season ppg0.891.14
state index-0.81-0.48
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00