⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

FC Utrecht 4–4 Roda JC

← Eredivisie 2002-03 Β· Fri, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Utrecht win47%2.00
Roda JC win27%3.60
Draw26%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC UtrechtRoda JC
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach daysβ€”319.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1525.581518.64
elo momentum (last 5)-1.15-8.02
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.571.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
league points43.0046.00
league rank8.004.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days6.003.00
season ppg1.391.48
state index-0.04-0.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20