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Racing Club de Lens 5–2 Stade Rennais FC 1901

← Ligue 1 2004-05 Β· Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win39%2.30
Stade Rennais FC 1901 win31%3.00
Draw30%3.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensStade Rennais FC 1901
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days110.00683.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1587.731625.71
elo momentum (last 5)-5.6131.30
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
league points46.0052.00
league rank11.005.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.311.49
state index0.481.00
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80