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Lille OSC 2–1 Racing Club de Lens

← Ligue 1 2004-05 Β· Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lille OSC win49%1.83
Draw31%2.90
Racing Club de Lens win20%4.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLille OSCRacing Club de Lens
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1020.0082.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
elo1622.391586.19
elo momentum (last 5)-13.0112.85
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)2.411.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
league points52.0042.00
league rank2.0010.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
rest days14.007.00
season ppg1.681.31
state index0.790.38
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80