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Bordeaux 2–0 Paris Saint-Germain FC

← Ligue 1 2000-01 Β· Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bordeaux win52%1.72
Draw26%3.40
Paris Saint-Germain FC win22%4.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBordeauxParis Saint-Germain FC
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2087.00107.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
elo1558.321471.92
elo momentum (last 5)15.84-8.75
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
league points46.0036.00
league rank5.0012.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days15.0015.00
season ppg1.641.29
state index0.94-0.36
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20