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Paris Saint-Germain FC 1–0 Racing Club de Lens

← Ligue 1 2000-01 Β· Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris Saint-Germain FC win52%1.72
Draw28%3.20
Racing Club de Lens win21%4.33

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricParis Saint-Germain FCRacing Club de Lens
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days57.001671.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
elo1480.671505.54
elo momentum (last 5)-11.20-13.69
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.101.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
league points30.0032.00
league rank11.0010.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win4.004.00
rest days14.0015.00
season ppg1.301.39
state index-0.52-0.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60