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Metz 2–2 Stade Rennais FC 1901

← Ligue 1 2000-01 Β· Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz win38%2.35
Stade Rennais FC 1901 win32%2.80
Draw31%2.90

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricMetzStade Rennais FC 1901
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
elo1445.041526.18
elo momentum (last 5)-14.6351.62
form points (last 5)3.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
league points22.0032.00
league rank16.008.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win8.000.00
rest days28.0023.00
season ppg1.051.45
state index-0.991.06
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00