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Hertha 3–1 1. FC Köln

← Bundesliga 2003-04 · Sat, May 22, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win58%1.53
Draw25%3.60
1. FC Köln win17%5.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
20Shots24
2Corners6
20Fouls14
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHertha1. FC Köln
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
cards avg (last 5)2.802.60
coach days691.004069.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.60-4.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.806.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.202.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.911.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.13
dominance (last 5)0.320.44
elo1549.191446.16
elo momentum (last 5)26.62-0.37
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.781.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
league points36.0023.00
league rank15.0018.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.090.70
shot diff avg (last 5)-10.40-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2012.80
state index0.38-0.54
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.00