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FC Schalke 04 1–0 FC Bayern München

← Bundesliga 2002-03 · Sat, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 win37%2.62
FC Bayern München win36%2.60
Draw27%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC Schalke 04FC Bayern München
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2426.001788.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1564.731773.12
elo momentum (last 5)-45.5520.46
form points (last 5)3.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.50
league points46.0075.00
league rank7.001.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win4.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.392.27
state index-0.411.82
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.00