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Munich 1860 2–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach

← Bundesliga 2002-03 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Munich 1860 win50%1.80
Draw28%3.25
Borussia Mönchengladbach win22%4.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.80
Under49%1.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMunich 1860Borussia Mönchengladbach
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—8680.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
elo1531.671499.94
elo momentum (last 5)-22.9911.32
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
league points34.0029.00
league rank9.0016.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
rest days14.9614.96
season ppg1.311.12
state index-0.69-0.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.00