Cottbus 2–3 VfB Stuttgart

← Bundesliga 2002-03 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
VfB Stuttgart win	40%	2.25
Cottbus win	32%	2.80
Draw	28%	3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	50%	1.83
Under	50%	1.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

Half-time score

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cottbus	VfB Stuttgart
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.05	0.00
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	—	793.00
comeback rate (last 20)	0.00	0.10
congestion 21d	2.00	2.00
elo	1436.96	1598.05
elo momentum (last 5)	-19.29	3.45
form points (last 5)	3.00	10.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	-1.20	0.80
goals against avg (last 5)	2.20	0.60
goals for avg (last 5)	1.00	1.40
goals volatility (last 10)	1.16	1.27
h2 goals (last 10)	0.50	0.70
h2h win rate (last 5)	0.50	0.50
ht lead rate (last 20)	0.25	0.35
league points	23.00	46.00
league rank	18.00	3.00
matches since blank	3.00	0.00
matches since clean sheet	4.00	1.00
matches since win	4.00	1.00
rest days	12.96	12.96
season ppg	0.88	1.77
state index	-0.84	0.83
venue ppg (last 5)	1.20	2.40