Kaiserslautern 5–0 Nurnberg

← Bundesliga 2002-03 · Sun, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Kaiserslautern win	53%	1.73
Draw	27%	3.30
Nurnberg win	20%	4.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	51%	1.80
Under	49%	1.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

Half-time score

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Kaiserslautern	Nurnberg
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.05	0.30
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	2442.00	2015.00
comeback rate (last 20)	0.00	0.00
congestion 21d	2.00	2.00
elo	1505.63	1469.69
elo momentum (last 5)	42.49	-13.47
form points (last 5)	9.00	4.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	0.80	-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)	0.60	1.60
goals for avg (last 5)	1.40	0.80
goals volatility (last 10)	0.82	0.79
h2 goals (last 10)	0.60	0.40
ht lead rate (last 20)	0.25	0.40
league points	22.00	25.00
league rank	18.00	16.00
matches since blank	0.00	1.00
matches since clean sheet	0.00	2.00
matches since win	1.00	2.00
rest days	8.00	8.00
season ppg	0.96	1.09
state index	0.65	-0.53
venue ppg (last 5)	2.40	0.80