← Bundesliga 2001-02 · Sat, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aust, J
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 52% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.20 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 25 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand