← Bundesliga 2001-02 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gagelmann, P
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 63% | 1.40 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.60 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 12% | 7.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand