← ATP Tour 2025 · 1st round · BNP Paribas Open (Hard) · Thu, Mar 6, 12:00 PM UTC · sets: 6-3 1-6 4-6
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sebastian Baez win | 54% | 1.80 |
| Matteo Gigante win | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| best of | 3 |
| comment | Completed |
| court | Outdoor |
| location | Indian Wells |
| series | Masters 1000 |