← Bundesliga 2000-01 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hartmut Strampe
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 39% | 2.30 |
| FC Bayern München win | 32% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 10 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand