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Bologna FC 1909 0–0 ACF Fiorentina

← Serie A 2004-05 Β· Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bologna FC 1909 win42%2.25
Draw33%2.87
ACF Fiorentina win25%3.60

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.66
Over44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBologna FC 1909ACF Fiorentina
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2124.001543.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1569.921517.55
elo momentum (last 5)-19.24-5.79
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
league points39.0033.00
league rank11.0018.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.0016.00
matches since win5.005.00
rest days4.004.00
season ppg1.221.03
state index-0.30-0.53
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.20