⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Udinese Calcio 3–3 AS Roma

← Serie A 2004-05 Β· Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Udinese Calcio win52%1.72
Draw27%3.30
AS Roma win21%4.33

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.85
Under49%1.95

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score3

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricUdinese CalcioAS Roma
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1014.00221.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
elo1661.061641.46
elo momentum (last 5)14.77-43.50
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.20
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
league points48.0038.00
league rank4.009.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
rest days20.9620.96
season ppg1.661.31
state index1.03-0.10
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80