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Ancona 2–1 Empoli

← Serie A 2003-04 Β· Sun, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Empoli win37%2.60
Ancona win32%2.90
Draw31%2.85

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnconaEmpoli
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach daysβ€”3965.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1369.701508.47
elo momentum (last 5)-9.3616.50
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
league points10.0030.00
league rank18.0016.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet11.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg0.310.94
state index-1.12-0.05
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40