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SS Lazio 3–1 Brescia

← Serie A 2002-03 Β· Sat, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SS Lazio win73%1.22
Draw18%5.00
Brescia win9%11.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSS LazioBrescia
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days381.002662.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1686.441573.90
elo momentum (last 5)17.430.44
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.15
league points57.0041.00
league rank4.0010.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.781.28
state index1.290.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80