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Modena 3–2 Bologna FC 1909

← Serie A 2002-03 Β· Sat, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Modena win40%2.20
Draw33%2.70
Bologna FC 1909 win26%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.61
Over42%2.20

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricModenaBologna FC 1909
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1388.001388.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1536.301533.96
elo momentum (last 5)3.72-10.51
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
league points32.0037.00
league rank13.0010.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win2.003.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg1.141.32
state index0.16-0.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40