⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Bologna FC 1909 2–0 Empoli

← Serie A 2002-03 Β· Sun, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bologna FC 1909 win49%1.83
Draw30%3.00
Empoli win22%4.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.83
Under50%1.83

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBologna FC 1909Empoli
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1333.003524.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
elo1528.931552.86
elo momentum (last 5)-54.18-30.65
form points (last 5)1.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
league points28.0024.00
league rank9.0011.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet8.002.00
matches since win7.007.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.331.14
state index-0.74-0.70
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20