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SS Lazio 5–4 Hellas Verona FC

← Serie A 2001-02 Β· Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SS Lazio win67%1.33
Draw22%4.00
Hellas Verona FC win11%8.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSS LazioHellas Verona FC
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days294.001390.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1604.071462.62
elo momentum (last 5)21.79-5.98
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
league points47.0039.00
league rank7.0012.00
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.521.26
state index1.04-0.42
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40