⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Bologna FC 1909 2–2 US Lecce

← Serie A 2000-01 Β· Sun, Jun 10, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bologna FC 1909 win47%1.90
Draw31%2.87
US Lecce win22%4.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBologna FC 1909US Lecce
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days710.001440.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1475.431430.39
elo momentum (last 5)-24.41-17.54
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.481.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
league points42.0033.00
league rank10.0017.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win5.0010.00
rest days14.0014.00
season ppg1.311.03
state index-0.56-1.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60