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Club Atlético de Madrid 2–2 Getafe CF

← Primera Division 2004-05 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Atlético de Madrid win52%1.72
Draw27%3.40
Getafe CF win22%4.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.85
Under49%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub Atlético de MadridGetafe CF
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2159.00301.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1561.001555.24
elo momentum (last 5)-27.90-2.34
form points (last 5)2.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
league points49.0046.00
league rank12.0015.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win7.002.00
rest days8.007.00
season ppg1.321.24
state index-0.40-0.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20